Autoregressive LLMs generate text by sampling from estimated probability distributions over the next token, conditional on prior context. We use these probabilities to construct an entropy-based ...

Research Associate Kosali Simon, the Herman B. Wells Professor and Distinguished Professor at the Paul H. O'Neill School of Public and Environmental at Indiana University, will direct the NBER Program ...

We investigate how the U.S. dollar’s prominence in the denomination of international debt securities has evolved in recent decades, using a comprehensive global dataset with far more extensive ...

The feeling or impression that students get about enrolling in a particular college may be an important determinant of their college application decision. Combining institutional records on college ...

The rate of return to R&D investments is a key driver of research investments in both the public and private sectors. The ...

How do firms make decisions on investments in emerging technologies? We find that firms adjust AI/green investments in response to market reactions to announcements of such emerging-technology ...

Do firms respond similarly to corporate tax incentives across countries? We provide globally comparable estimates of the corporate elasticity of taxable income using administrative tax return data ...

This paper shows that the pace of technology creation is a key driver of the skill premium. It develops a model in which skilled workers have a comparative advantage in learning new technologies. As ...

Immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) are immunotherapy drugs that mobilize the patient’s immune system to detect and attack cancer cells. They are considered a breakthrough development in cancer care, ...

We examine two approaches to improving urban school systems: changing who gets to go to existing schools (reallocation) and restructuring school portfolios through closures and reconstitution ...

Useful social science theories predict behavior across settings. However, applying a theory to make predictions in new settings is challenging: rarely can it be done without ad hoc modifications to ...

This paper interprets Brexit as a two-stage institutional rupture that reshaped migration through expectations, exposure, and stress channels. Using a UK–Germany Difference-in-Differences framework, I ...